Just three years ago, the narrative surrounding Western big game was one of apocalypse. The winter of ‘22-’23 will live in infamy as the “70-year winter" that hammered both mule deer and elk populations across the Northwest. As pictures of starving fawns and zombie herds dominated headlines, wildlife managers responded with the only tool they had: catastrophic cuts to hunting licenses, which included up to 90% in some Colorado units.
Fast forward to today, and suddenly we’re looking at a script that has been seemingly rewritten. As we stare down the start of the 2026 western hunting season, we are no longer talking about recovery but rebound. Driven by a remarkable, back-to-back run of mild, short winters that has triggered a population explosion, big game numbers are surging faster than even the most optimistic biologists predicted.
Nowhere is this shift more dramatic than in Northwest Colorado, specifically within the legendary Bear’s Ears and White River elk herds. These herds, which are historically some of the largest in the world, were the epicenter of the 2023 die-off. In response, Colorado Parks and Wildlife slammed on the brakes, cutting cow licenses and turning some OTC units into limited draws.
“Looking at the landscape today, it’s hard to believe that just three years ago we were experiencing the worst winter we had seen in 70 years,” Darby Finley, Colorado Parks and Wildlife’s terrestrial biologist said in a news release. “That spring, we saw some of the lowest survival rates ever recorded by CPW biologists. In some areas, elk populations north of Craig were reduced by half. Today, we are seeing a much different picture with elk population numbers.”
According to preliminary data leaked from CPW’s recent winter classification counts, those same herds have made a staggering recovery. With worries of herd survival in the rearview (at least for now), the agency has shifted into management mode as established population objectives are once again being exceeded. This unprecedented bounce-back is forcing an aggressive U-turn in management strategy for the upcoming season as hunters can expect to see a significant spike in proposed license quotas, particularly for antlerless (cow) elk.
The story is echoed across the state lines as biologists from Idaho noted a similar pattern. After suffering significant losses in 2023, Idaho Fish and Game saw elk calf survival skyrocket to 93% in 2024 and maintain a near-record 82% in 2025. This baby boom is also revitalizing their mule deer herds, which had been in a multi-decade slump. While Idaho manages their tags differently than Colorado, this year’s hunters will undoubtedly benefit from the hat trick of harvest increases across elk, mule deer, and whitetail tags.
The recovery in neighboring Wyoming is slightly slower, but still undeniable. The iconic Wyoming Range mule deer herd, which saw its fawns all but wiped out in 2023, is finally showing signs of stabilization. In other units, such as the Casper and Cody regions, managers are reporting herds are at or above objective, leading to what they are now describing as "liberalized" seasons with more opportunity.
And while this is all great sounding news, there is a biological twist that defines this entire rebound. As we all know, when winter conditions like the ones we saw in 2023 hit, the most vulnerable age class are the ones that suffer the most damage.
In some battered units of Northwest Colorado, calf survival during that critical 2022-23 winter dropped as low as 10%, essentially wiping out the entire class of 2022, so to speak. This erasure creates a missing generation of calves that would have been strong, 3.5-year-old bulls if they had made it through.
This doesn’t necessarily mean that there will be any less opportunity for western hunters this year. In all likelihood, hunters will see plenty of animals confirming the need for increased quotas, there just might be fewer of those mid-life quality bulls and bucks on the move.
